Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
